Surprise Minimization or Free Energy Minimization (see post Prediction Machine et al) as presented by Andy Clark and including the ideas of Karl Friston and others
I continually look for commment on and expansion of these ideas, and I often do this in the most lazy of ways, I google them. Recently I seemed to find the last two mentioned on the same page of a philosophy book. That was not actually true, but it did remind me of similarities that I could point out. The idea of a compensatory process where one changes his belief a little to match the current set of “facts” tracks well with the idea that we can get predictions correct by moving our hand to catch the ball so that it does not have to be thrown perfectly. Both clearly try to match up the environment and ourselves. The Parallel Constraint Satisfaction model minimizes dissonance while the Free Energy model minimizes surprise. Both dissonance and surprise can create instability. The Free Energy model is more universal than the Parallel Constraint Satisfaction model, while for decision making PCS is more precise. The Free Energy model also gives us the idea that heuristic models could fit within process models. All this points out what is obvious to us all. We need the right model for the right job.
This is the second post looking at Karl Friston’s review (“The Fantastic Organ” Brain 2013:136; 1328-1332) of Kandel’s The Age of Insight: the Quest to Understand the Unconscious in Art, Mind, and Brain, from Vienna 1900 to the Present. Kandel looks at how we make inferences about other people, ourselves and our emotional states. He combines the mirror neuron system with reflections in a mirror. Friston suggests that this captures the essence of ‘perspective taking’, which is unpacked in terms of second order representations (representations of representations) as they relate to theory of mind and how artists use reflections. Friston states:
It is self evident that if our brains entail generative models of our world, then much of the brain must be devoted to modelling entities that populate our world; namely, other people. In other words, we spend much of our time generating hypotheses and predictions about the behavior of people—including ourselves. As noted by Kandel ‘the brain also needs a model of itself’ (p. 406).
This post is the first of two that look at a book review written by Karl Friston. Friston is the primary idea man behind embodied cognition (see post Embodied (grounded) Prediction (cognition) so far as I can tell. A book review is a chance to read his ideas in a little less formal and easier to understand environment. He reviews The Age of Insight: the Quest to Understand the Unconscious in Art, Mind, and Brain, from Vienna 1900 to the Present by Eric R. Kandel 2012.
This post is a look at the book by Philip E Tetlock and Dan Gardner, Superforecasting– the Art and Science of Prediction. Phil Tetlock is also the author of Expert Political Judgment: How Good Is It? How Can We Know? In Superforecasting Tetlock blends discussion of the largely popular literature on decision making and his long duration scientific work on the ability of experts and others to predict future events.
In Expert Political Judgment: How Good Is It? How Can We Know? Tetlock found that the average expert did little better than guessing. He also found that some did better. In Superforecasting he discusses the study of those who did better and how they did it.