Tag Archives: intuition

Development Stages of Intuition and Analysis

Valerie Reyna has inserted development as humans transform from young children to adulthood and on to advanced age as a means to study decision making.  In fuzzy trace theory, there is gist-based intuition and verbatim based intuition. They do not develop in the same way.  In fact, there are development reversals in which biases increase with age.  During childhood, verbatim based calculation skill increases continuously, but gist based bottom line meaning in many situations increases more quickly. Verbatim and gist representations are encoded and processed in parallel.  Which controls task performance depends on which is more accessible and on the constraints of the task.  In general, gist is more accessible and more useful, especially when informed by age and experience.

Reyna finds that the argument that adolescence is a time of increased irrationality is flawed.  Preference for risk exhibits a fairly stable downward trend across age. She concludes that precise calculation of risks and rewards promotes risk taking among adolescents, whereas simple all-or-none gist based intuition protects adults against unhealthy risk taking. Reyna also sees inhibition as a third factor which increases with age during adolescence and young adulthood.

Reyna concludes that mature adults differ from adolescents in more than the ability to rein in responses to tempting rewards.  If offered a million dollars to play Russian roulette, an adult quickly refuses.  An adolescent probably does a quick cost-benefit analysis.  Determining if the reward is worth the risk sounds smart and it fits a traditional definition of rationality. To an adult, it is categorically crazy, a gist based, all-or-none intuition.

Peters et al discuss the age related impacts of cancer decision making. In familiar situations, older adults are benefited by their reliance on gist-based intuition. However, when complex or changing rules must be learned, older adults may make poorer decisions.  Understanding of numeric information is likely to be poorer, also.  Thus, clinicians should emphasize affective meaning with verbal labels such as excellent and fair to interpret numeric risk information.

Betsch and  Glockner point to the need to do research on how children intuitively integrate information.  The limited research shows promise.  Ebersbach demonstrated that kindergarten children are capable of spontaneously integrating three orthogonally varying stimulus dimensions in their judgments of volume.

Betsch, T & Glockner A (2010) Intuition in Judgment and Decision Making: Extensive Thinking without Effort. Psychological Inquiry, 21: 279-294.

Peters, E; Diefenbach, M; Hess, T; Vastfjaii, D;(2008) Age Differences in Dual Information-Processing Modes: Implications for Cancer Decision Making. Cancer December 15: 113(12 Suppl):3556-3567.

Reyna, V(2012) A new Intuitionism: Meaning, memory, and development in Fuzzy-Trace Theory. Judgment and Decision Making, Vol 7, No. 3, May 2012, pp. 332-359.



Intuition in J/DM

2012-09-08 16.24.54Intuition is slippery to define. Robin Hogarth used thoughts that “are reached with little apparent effort, and typically without conscious awareness” in Educating Intuition.  Gigerenzer and his associates call humans “homo heuristicus” and emphasize effort reduction and selective information processing.   For instance, the lexicographic heuristic has us starting by comparing alternatives on the most important dimension.  If there is a difference, we choose the best and do not seek any more information.

I find the discussion by Tilmann Betsch and Andreas Glockner in “Intuition in Judgment and Decision Making:  Extensive Thinking Without Effort” appealing.  They see heuristics as just a part of intuition.  Heuristics, largely, seem to simplify analytic thought by leaving out effort filled information processes or by reducing the amount of information considered.  Betsch and Glockner claim that “intuition is capable of dealing with complex tasks through extensive information processing without noticeable effort.”

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Justifying our Decisions: Great for Plausible Deniability, not so Great for Medical Diagnosis

Sadly, Larry had always approached from the side that wasn't posted and a natural treasure was destroyed before anyone could react

Sadly, Larry had always approached from the side that wasn’t posted and a natural treasure was destroyed before anyone could react

I am looking at the idea of “justification” as discussed separately by Kenneth R Hammond, Jonathan Haidt, and Steve Catty and Jamin Halberstadt.

Ken Hammond created the JDM metatheory dichotomy of coherence and correspondence.  Coherence tests decisions on rationality while correspondence tests decisions on empirical accuracy.  Coherence advocates start with the mind of the decision maker.  In examining rationality of judgment, the main criterion is consistency.  Bayes’ theorem is the model for mathematical coherence of decision making. Coherence focuses on justification.  It describes departures from “ought” coherence.

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