This post is based on a paper by Amy L Baylor, “A U-Shaped Model for the Development of Intuition by Expertise.” that appeared in New Ideas in Psychology, in 2001. I am bringing her ideas up now, because they are important for my next post. Although today intuition seems to have become unconscious thinking, Baylor saw it as closer to insight–far more special– in this paper. I notice this more because, I just finished reading Seeing What Others Don’t by Gary Klein which is about insight. Baylor’s questions are: Does a more naive view of a field lead to greater new insights? Or does expertise facilitate one’s capability for intuition in a given field? How can both of these positions be reconciled? It is interesting also that Baylor’s references do not duplicate authors that I have seen before.
Daniel Kahneman has been practically ignored in this blog. His 2011 book: Thinking, Fast and Slow, is well written and an excellent resource. I certainly do not hold winning the Nobel Prize for Economics against him. I do wish he was more like Ken Hammond and gave me more background and more perspective on what questions that are likely to be answered in the future or what research he believes is interesting, or especially why Gigerenzer is wrong. System 1 and System 2 seem outdated and Kahneman seems to just ignore research like that of Glockner and Betsch Intuition in J/DM that sees the systems as more holistic.
Ski guides who use helicopters or tracked vehicles to get skiers into the treasured deep powder must evaluate avalanche possibilities. Iain Stewart-Patterson of Thompson Rivers University, Kamloops, BC, examines avalanche expertise in a JDM context in “What Does Your Gut Say and Should You Listen? The Intuitive-Analytical Decision Making Continuum in Mechanized Ski Guiding.” The paper was presented at the 2010 Snow Science International Workshop.
British Columbia does seem to be the obvious place to do such a study. Even a non-skier does not forget the concrete avalanche sheds that protect the highway that come seemingly one after another in southern British Columbia. Stewart-Patterson tells us that ski guides are trained in the decision process at each step in the certification process. There are three levels of avalanche training and four levels of guide training and certification representing a total of 50-60 days. Stewart-Patterson interviewed 32 accomplished guides with an average of about 9600 hours of experience. He also had them complete questionnaires.