“Human achievement is lower when there are nonlinearities in the ecology.” (What has Brunswik’s Lens Model Taught?).
This post is a look at the book by Philip E Tetlock and Dan Gardner, Superforecasting– the Art and Science of Prediction. Phil Tetlock is also the author of Expert Political Judgment: How Good Is It? How Can We Know? In Superforecasting Tetlock blends discussion of the largely popular literature on decision making and his long duration scientific work on the ability of experts and others to predict future events.
In Expert Political Judgment: How Good Is It? How Can We Know? Tetlock found that the average expert did little better than guessing. He also found that some did better. In Superforecasting he discusses the study of those who did better and how they did it.
I have mentioned Michael Mauboussin’s book The Success Equation before, but this will be the closest I come to a review. The title makes it sound like a self help book, but it is much more substantial. However, his notes and bibliography somehow miss both Ken Hammond and Robin Hogarth which frankly seems unlikely. Hogarth’s books Educating Intuition (post Learning, Feedback and Intuition) and Dance with Chance (post Dancing with Chance) have much in common.
Mauboussin most unique contribution from my view is to bring Bill James and his successors from baseball to the world of skill and luck and investment. And Mauboussin is amazingly honest about the luck involved in investment which is his world. He pretty much says that you cannot be an expert in his field but only experienced. Using sports, especially baseball, makes the book’s ideas much more understandable. That brings us to the idea for this post. Mauboussin calls it reversion to the mean and Kahneman calls it regression to the mean. Either way, baseball makes it more understandable.