This post starts with the paper “Brains striving for coherence: Long-term cumulative plot formation in the default mode network,” authored by K. Tylén, P. Christensen, A. Roepstorff, T. Lund, S. Østergaard, and M. Donald. The paper appeared in NeuroImage 121 (2015) 106–114.
People are capable of navigating and keeping track of all the parallel social activities of everyday life even when confronted with interruptions or changes in the environment. Tylen et al suggest that even though these situations present themselves in series of interrupted segments often scattered over huge time periods, they tend to constitute perfectly well-formed and coherent experiences in conscious memory. However, the underlying mechanisms of such long-term integration is not well understood. While brain activity is generally traceable within the short time frame of working memory, these integrative processes last for minutes, hours or even days.
This post is based on a paper: “Does interaction matter? Testing whether a confidence heuristic can replace interaction in collective decision-making.” The authors are
Dan Bang, Riccardo Fusaroli, Kristian Tylén, Karsten Olsen, Peter E. Latham, Jennifer Y.F. Lau, Andreas Roepstorff, Geraint Rees, Chris D. Frith, and Bahador Bahrami. The paper appeared in Consciousness and Cognition 26 (2014) 13–23.
The paper indicates that there is a growing interest in the mechanisms underlying the ‘‘two-heads-better-than-one’’ (2HBT1) effect, which refers to the ability of dyads to make more accurate decisions than either of their members. Bahrami’s 2010 study, using a perceptual task in which two observers had to detect a visual target, showed that two heads become better than one by sharing their ‘confidence’ (i.e., an internal estimate of the probability of being correct), thus allowing them to identify who is more likely to be correct in a given situation. This tendency to evaluate the reliability of information by the confidence with which it is expressed has been termed the ‘confidence heuristic’. I do not recall having seen the acronym 2HBT1 before, but it does recall the post Dialectical Bootstrapping in which one forms his own dyad, Bootstrapping where one uses expert judgment, and Scott Page’s work Diversity or Systematic Error? However, this is the first discussion of a confidence heuristic.